Russia says it halted a Ukrainian incursion into its territory. Evidence suggests it hasn’t

Russia claims to have halted a Ukrainian incursion into its territory on Thursday, although latest evidence from the ground suggests fighting continues in the Kursk region.

The Russian Ministry of Defense said units of the “North” group of its forces, together with the Russian Federal Security Service, the FSB, “continue to destroy Ukrainian armed forces formations in the Sudzhensky and Korenevsky districts of the Kursk region, which are directly adjacent to the Russian-Ukrainian border.”

Ukraine has not officially confirmed its forces conducted a ground operation inside Russia.

Neither the Ukrainian military nor the government in Kyiv has commented on the operation.

Russia accused Ukrainian troops of crossing the border into its Kursk region on Tuesday, claiming that Ukrainian forces launched a “massive attack” and attempted to break through the Russian defenses.

The extent of the attack, including whether Ukrainian troops took over any settlements or caused damage to any strategic targets, remains unclear.

The Russian state news agency TASS on Thursday quoted the Russian Health Ministry as saying 34 people were injured in the shelling of the Kursk region were “undergoing inpatient treatment,” with nine evacuated to Moscow for treatment.

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Thursday that residents of the region who have been forced to leave their homes would be given a one-time payment of 10,000 rubles ($115).

CNN has geolocated video footage from inside a car that is being driven quickly through the deserted and damaged streets of the town of Sudzha, 6 miles (10 kilometers) from the border. Some wrecked vehicles are also seen in the video as the car moves north out of the town. It’s unclear whether the video was shot Wednesday or Thursday.

The Russian Defense Ministry said “attempts by individual [Ukrainian] units to break through deep into the territory in the Kursk direction are being thwarted.”

It claimed that the Ukrainians had “lost up to 400 servicemen and 32 armoured vehicles, including a tank, four armoured personnel carriers, three infantry fighting vehicles and 24 Kozak armoured fighting vehicles.” The ministry’s claims cannot be verified.

Russian military bloggers have described the situation as difficult, with communications jammed.  One prominent blogger was seriously injured Wednesday when his vehicle was struck.

Mick Ryan, author of the Futura Doctrina blog and an analyst of the war in Ukraine, said Thursday that the Ukrainian military had deployed “quality formations. It appears that unlike in the 2023 southern counteroffensive where fresh brigades were employed, the Ukrainians have allocated experienced formations to this attack. This already appears to be paying dividends with the depth of the Ukrainian penetration so far.”

The US-based conflict monitoring group the Institute for the Study of War said in its assessment on Thursday that “Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers” into the Kursk region on Wednesday.

The Ukrainian military and the government in Kyiv have remained silent about the cross-border attack, declining to answer questions from CNN.

Ukraine’s allies have not commented on the situation beyond saying the country has the right to defend itself. The EU’s foreign affairs and security policy spokesperson Peter Stano told the Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne News that according to the international law, Kyiv “has the legal right to defend itself, including striking an aggressor on its territory.”

The White House was taken by surprise by the developments, with Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre telling reporters on Wednesday that it was not told ahead of time, adding that the Biden administration was “going to reach out to the Ukrainian military to learn more about their objectives.”

Jean-Pierre said the US was “supportive of Ukraine as they are defending themselves against Russia’s aggression.”

“And so, we’re going to continue to do that. And they are going to take actions … to certainly to protect themselves from these attacks,” she added.

But as for the specific operation, we’re going to reach out to them to see what their objective is and continue to stay focused.  We are going to continue to stay focused on making sure they have what they need to defend themselves against Russia’s aggression.

It remains unclear why Ukrainian forces would launch an attack of the scale described by Russian authorities.

Ukrainian troops have found themselves under increased pressure along the 600-mile frontline as Moscow continues its slow, grinding offensive.

Russian troops have recently made incremental advances towards the strategically important city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, threatening a vital Ukrainian supply line. At the same time, Russian forces claim to have seized the village of Niu York and are getting closer to Toretsk.

Kyiv has started receiving new tranches of the long-delayed US military assistance in May, but is still facing troop shortages because many of its newly recruited soldiers are still in training.

The Ukraine Military Intelligence said on Thursday that its forces raided the Russian-occupied Tendra Spit on Tuesday, destroying Russian armoured vehicles, an electronic warfare system, and fortifications. The narrow island in the northern part of the Black Sea is about 40 miles long and about 1 mile wide.

Ukrainian special forces destroyed Russian “equipment, personnel, and fortifications” during the raid, HUR said, adding that among the destroyed were armored vehicles, in particular MT-LB amphibious personnel carriers, electronic warfare complex and fortifications.

HUR claimed Russian forces suffered losses among the personnel, without providing any further details. There were no losses among the Ukrainian forces, it said.

An incursion into Russia could be an attempt by Kyiv to divert Russian resources elsewhere. Given the spate of more negative developments from the frontline, the news of a successful incursion help Kyiv boost the morale of its troops and civilian population.

It could also be a message to Russia’s civilian population – a demonstration that Moscow’s war on Ukraine makes Russia vulnerable to attacks.

A Russian military blogger Rybar reported on Wednesday that the Ukrainian military had established control over a gas transit station near the border. The blogger said the station is the only one through which gas from Russia flows to Ukraine and then to Europe. CNN cannot confirm that reporting.

The European Union has imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on Russia – with the exception of key natural gas imports. The EU was dependent on Russian gas and while it has slashed imports from Russia from 45% of all gas imports in 2021, to 15% of EU gas imports in 2023, some Russian gas still continues to flow to Europe through Ukraine, despite the war.